Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Experience is the best teacher

To truly know yourself you need to feel the actual happenings in the market. Your winners and losers define your strengths and weaknesses. Separate your winners from your losers and from there you can see which strategy works for you and which does not. You can retain your strengths and eliminate your weaknesses or polish it. Analyze where you got it wrong. Is it the timing, the stock picking, is it from the bias of a certain stock you hold, or wrong position sizing, or just the impulse from buying what you see is winning?

Most of my prior mistake comes from timing, impulsive trading, overtrading and overleveraging. If you know your mistakes then you need to find solutions from your actions. Hope is not a strategy cause once you hope you might wake up finding yourself more in trouble because of higher losses. You need to accept that losses are part of the game. When you have a mistake in timing you cut first and observe what happens to that stock. Ask where the trend is. The support and resistances of the stock. Observe the demand and supply for that stock. If it is on an uptrend a stock that is losing might just be on a phase of a healthy pullback or on its consolidation mode. If you studied the fundamentals of the stock and you have seen it as undervalued you can either buy on those pullbacks to gain volume. Volume is what a winning stock needs. What I do is buy the pullbacks and sell the strength. You also need to look for indicators you truly understand and is easy to use and can put up with your previous learnings.


I use Guppy Multiple Moving Averages to know where the trend is headed. I also look at the longer timeframe to see if the stock is good to hold or not. I use Heiken Ashi to know the direction of the price action. In the heiken ashi we sell on the first red we see but I prefer to sell where the stock is the strongest and still has lots of buyer cause when you sell on the first red there is where most traders are already selling their shares too and you will race who has the fastest hands among all of you.
The blue arrows are for buying and the red arrows are where we sell. So in this indicator we can also see that stocks have a period of consolidation where Minervini said is bwelo. You can find it on the boxes and can also be called Darvas box. After the consolidation we can see it enter a new high as well. Currently we are in a period of consolidation once more. This system also teach you about golden crosses for ma 13 which is the teal color and MA 20. You can also find here the Allignment of the Stars presented by MA 20 which is the middle band of the bollinger and is in color yellow, MA 50 the purple color MA, and MA 100 the green colored MA.

For other discipline purposes, I also use Aroon in determining the trend and the consolidation process. Aroon says that stocks don't go in one direction, price surges and it needs to rest the reason why we have correction, consolidation, and healthy pullback. RSI to know the status of overbought and oversold levels. Price exhaust to see how the buying and sellling are already thinning or thickening.


Another mistakes we also commit is buying from impulses. It is the Fear Of Missing Out ones trade. You enter at the highs not knowing that traders are already locking in profits making you one of the investors of the stock because of high losses. It's okay to watch the winners especially if it has an unusual volume. After watching it wait for the period of consolidation first. Make a research on the fundamentals of the company while waiting for the consolidations. Look for answer why this stocks go up. Is there a gossip on a certain stock? If there is then it's good to position on that stock until the news comes out. Just like what happened to APL it is a classic example of buy the gossip sell the news. After the news came out it went to a high of . 77 and was sold down to .61. You can either play the bounce on that one but then don't come back already. Especially that the news is out already there will be no more catalyst to make this stock higher.

No comments:

Post a Comment